Statistical Inference Methods for Two Crossing Survival Curves: A Comparison of Methods

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér—von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.     

Phylogenetic diversity is a better predictor of wetland community resistance to Alternanthera philoxeroides invasion than species richness

• Highly biodiversity communities have been shown to better resist plant invasions through complementarity effects. Species richness (SR) is a widely used biodiversity metric but lacks explanatory power when there are only a few species. Communities with low SR can have a wide variety of phylogenetic diversities (PD), which might allow for a better prediction of invasibility.
• We assessed the effect of diversity reduction of a wetland community assemblage typical of the Beijing area on biotic resistance to invasion of the exotic weed Alternanthera philoxeroides and compared the reduction in SR and PD in predicting community invasibility.
• The eight studied resident species performed similarly when grown alone and when grown in eight‐species communities together with the invasive A. philoxeroides. Variation partitioning showed that PD contributed more to variation in both A. philoxeroides traits and community indicators than SR. All A. philoxeroides traits and community indicators, except for evenness index, showed a linear relationship with PD. However, only stem length of A. philoxeroides differed between the one‐ and two‐species treatments, and the diversity index of the communities differed between the one‐ and two‐species treatments and between the one‐ and four‐species treatments.
• Our results showed that in natural or semi‐natural wetlands with relatively low SR, PD may be a better predictor of invasibility than SR. When designing management strategies for mitigating A. philoxeroides invasion, deliberately raising PD is expected to be more efficient than simply increasing species number.

     

Theoretical calculation of the sugar concentrations during enzymatic production of fructooligosaccharides

Summary In a batch production of fructooligosaccharides from sucrose, the concentrations of residual sucrose, glucose and fructooligosaccharides at a given reaction time(t) and initial sucrose concentration(S₀) were theoretically calculated by the following correlation equations: Glucose(t) = 0.0653 S₀ × ln(t); Fructooligosaccharides(t) = 0.1636 S₀ × ln(t); Sucrose(t)=S₀ - Glucose(t) + FOS(t).     

Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China

It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.     

荒漠灌丛土壤动物分布及其生态功能

在干旱、半干旱荒漠生态系统中,灌丛作为一种重要的植被类型,其独特的形态和生理适应特性能够有效促进退化生态系统结构与功能的恢复。土壤动物是荒漠生态系统中不可或缺的重要组成部分,对促进灌丛"肥岛"演变具有重要的生态作用,有利于灌丛生态功能的发挥及退化生态系统的恢复。近年来,国内外学者对荒漠灌丛微生境土壤动物的研究逐步深入,取得大量的研究成果。在此基础上,首先综述荒漠灌丛微生境土壤动物群落分布和生态功能,总结灌丛与土壤动物分布间作用关系的数学模型,针对荒漠灌丛土壤动物研究中存在的问题提出了未来可能的研究方向和建议。